The foresight framework
Grounded in the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach. Scenarios here do not predict — they test the robustness of a plan's assumptions against plausible, precedent-free futures. Each also runs as a discussion-based tabletop exercise.
A system can be excellent at preparing for what it has seen and still be blind to what it has not. The purpose of scenario work here is to build readiness for the precedent-free — not just better plans for the last crisis.
Getting ready for a threat that HAS a reference class — one that resembles something we have seen (COVID, influenza, known AMR). Plans, playbooks and drills work because the past is a guide.
Being able to cope with a threat that is precedent-free — a pathogen, dynamic or context we have NOT seen, where experience can actively mislead. Readiness is an adaptive capacity, not a plan for a known pattern.
The foresight process
Purpose
What decision or plan review does this serve, and by when?
→ A single, learning-framed purpose — test robustness, not predict.
Scan
What forces outside our control could reshape the threat?
→ A horizon scan of contextual driving forces (outside-in).
Build
What plausible, precedent-free futures should we inhabit?
→ A small set of distinct scenario worlds — no probabilities.
Windtunnel
Which of the plan’s assumptions hold, and which break?
→ Each assumption tested against each world; robustness verdict.
Use
What changes in the plan because of what broke?
→ Findings fed into the plan review; assumptions re-owned.
The TUNA lens
Every scenario is characterised by how much of each TUNA condition it presents. This lens — not likelihood×impact — is how novel threats are handled.
Turbulence
the pace and force of change in the environment
Uncertainty
direction that cannot be reliably probabilised
Novelty
no reference class — prior experience misleads
Ambiguity
the same signal is read in genuinely different ways
We do not put probabilities on scenarios. A genuinely novel (N-dominant) threat has no reference class, so forcing a likelihood turns foresight back into forecasting. Likelihood×impact is kept for known, reference-class risks; novel threats are explored through TUNA and scenario worlds.
The two structures below support the process above: a tabletop lifecycle for running each scenario, and the ten capability dimensions each scenario stresses.
Exercise lifecycle
Scope & Objectives
Define what the exercise must test and who must be in the room.
Scenario Design
Build a plausible scenario with a timeline of injects and decision points.
Conduct
Facilitate structured discussion as injects escalate the situation.
After-Action Review
Convert observations into what worked, what did not and why.
Improvement Plan
Assign owners and deadlines so findings change real capability.
Ten capability dimensions
Shared with the Global Pandemic Preparedness Benchmark — so a scenario's capability stress maps directly onto benchmarked national scores.
01Pathogen Scope
Breadth of pathogen types and transmission routes covered.
02Surveillance Systems
Genomic, wastewater and real-time signal detection.
03Rapid Response
Speed to scale testing, tracing and countermeasures.
04Manufacturing Capacity
Domestic production and supply-chain security.
05Governance Structure
Command chains, coordination and clear authority.
06Health Equity
Protection of vulnerable and disadvantaged populations.
07One Health
Integration of human, animal and environmental health.
08Legislative Framework
Legal authorities, emergency powers and accountability.
09Transparency
Public reporting, candour and trust.
10Investment Scale
Sustained funding relative to need.