OSPA Academy
Scenario planning, in plain language
A no-jargon guide to the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA) — the method this whole platform is built on. No experience needed. Read top to bottom.
1The one idea everything rests on
OSPA is not about predicting the future. Nobody can do that. It's about changing how you see the present so you make wiser decisions today.
Instead of guessing the one thing that will happen, you imagine a few believable futures, and check: "would our plan still work in each one?" The goal isn't to be rightabout the future — it's to be ready whatever it does.
2The picture: a coat in different weather
Think of a plan as a raincoat. It looks fine on the hook — but you only find where it leaks when you stand outside in a storm. And you don't know which storm is coming.
So instead of betting on one, you test the coat against several storms and patch every leak now, while it's still dry:
Each scenario
a different storm to test the coat against
The plan
the coat you're testing
Where it tears
a leak you can fix before it's real
On this platform, the scenarios (Disease X, avian flu, supply-chain collapse) are the storms, and the Assumptions Register is the list of seams where the coat can leak.
3Readiness vs preparedness
Getting ready for a storm you've seen before — you have a playbook that works because the past is a guide.
Being able to cope with a storm that is brand new — where old playbooks can actually mislead you.
A system can be great at preparedness and still be caught out by something it has never seen. OSPA builds readiness — that's the harder, more valuable thing.
4When to use it — the TUNA check
OSPA is worth the effort only when the future is genuinely hard to predict. TUNA is a 4-point checklist for that:
T — Turbulent
things change fast and knock into each other
U — Uncertain
you can't put honest odds on what happens
N — Novel
never happened before, so experience misleads
A — Ambiguous
the same fact means different things to different people
Rule: low TUNA → just forecast it. High TUNA → use OSPA."How many cups will I sell Tuesday?" is a forecast. "Should I sign a 10-year lease?" is OSPA.
5The method — walked through with a coffee shop
Meet Maha, who wants her coffee shop thriving in 10 years. Here are the four phases, using her the whole way.
Frame — get the question right
Who decides (Maha), what real decision (sign a 10-year lease or not), how far out (10 years). One sentence: “Help Maha decide on the lease by exploring how her neighbourhood could change to 2035.”
Explore — gather the forces you can't control
Scan the wider world and talk to people who see it differently. Two big forces surface: where people work (office vs home → foot traffic) and coffee supply & climate (→ her costs).
Build — make a few believable futures
Cross the two forces into four worlds: Boom Town, Pricey Buzz, Ghost High Street, Perfect Storm. Each gets a name and a short story so it feels real. Test: plausible, challenging, relevant, clearly different — never ranked by odds.
Use — fly the plan through each world
Run “sign the 10-year lease” through all four. It's fine in Boom Town, a disaster in Ghost High Street. The insight: a 10-year commitment is fragile to the area emptying out. So Maha invents a better option — a shorter lease plus a delivery side. That new, sturdier option is the real prize.
6How this maps to the platform
7Beginner mistakes to skip
- Sliding into prediction — ranking scenarios by "most likely". It kills the point.
- Best-case / worst-case / middle — that's a forecast in disguise, not real scenarios.
- Only using forces you already worry about — the useful ones are outside your control.
- Making scenarios and stopping — if you never test your plan against them, it was just art.
- Scenarios that are all comfortable — if none of them worries you, they're too weak.
8Your climb from aware to expert
- Practitioner: run the full 4-phase loop on one real question of your own. Repetition is everything.
- Facilitator: learn to run it for a group — the skill is asking good questions, not having answers.
- Expert: learn the build methods beyond the 2×2, and study the source book.
The definitive text: Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, Rafael Ramírez & Angela Wilkinson (Oxford University Press, 2016) — from the Oxford Scenarios Programme.