Biosecurity
Deliberate Release — Unattributed Biological Incident
An unusual cluster of a rare disease raises the question of intentional release.
Duration
150 min
Injects
5
Audience
National security council, public health, law enforcement, CBRN response
Situation
An unusual cluster of a rare, severe illness appears among people with a shared location but no shared social links. The causative agent is a select agent not normally seen in the region. It is unclear whether this is a natural outbreak, a laboratory escape, or a deliberate release. Public health and security responses must run in parallel without compromising each other.
Exercise objectives
- Exercise the interface between public health response and criminal/national-security investigation.
- Test how attribution uncertainty affects medical countermeasure and communication decisions.
- Clarify legal authorities and chain-of-custody when a health event may be a crime.
- Rehearse coordinated messaging that avoids panic and avoids prejudicing an investigation.
Capability stress
How hard this scenario tests each of the 10 benchmark dimensions (1–5).
Foresight lens
Being able to cope with a threat that is precedent-free — a pathogen, dynamic or context we have NOT seen, where experience can actively mislead. Readiness is an adaptive capacity, not a plan for a known pattern.
TUNA profile
Assumptions this scenario windtunnelsfull register →
A9A biological event is a health event, not a security event.
Sensitivity: medium · TUNA: A
A1Surveillance will detect the next threat early enough to act on it.
Sensitivity: high · TUNA: N · U
Scenario parameters
Illustrative planning figures for discussion — not operational data.
Agent class
Rare select agent, atypical for the region
Presentation
Common-source epidemic curve, tight geographic focus
Person-to-person spread
Low/none for this agent (scenario-dependent)
Attribution at T0
Unknown — natural, accidental or deliberate all open
Countermeasure
Stockpiled prophylaxis exists; distribution untested at scale
Roles at the table
Health Incident Lead
Owns case management, prophylaxis and public health measures.
Law Enforcement Lead
Owns the criminal investigation and evidence chain-of-custody.
National Security Coordinator
Owns the attribution question and inter-agency coordination.
Public Health Laboratory Director
Balances rapid diagnosis with forensic sample integrity.
Communications Lead
Coordinates messaging across health and security without prejudicing either.
Inject timeline
- Day 0Unusual cluster
Clinicians report several severe cases of a disease rarely seen locally.
- Day 1Agent identified
The reference lab confirms a select agent atypical for the region.
- Day 2Common location
Cases share a single public venue within a narrow time window.
- Day 3Anonymous claim
An unverified online post claims responsibility, raising deliberate-release concerns.
- Day 5Second location signal
A possible second exposure site is identified in another city.
Decision points
D1How do you run mass prophylaxis while preserving a potential crime scene and forensic evidence?
- Public-health urgency vs. evidence integrity and chain-of-custody.
- Pre-existing memoranda of understanding between health and law enforcement.
- Who leads at the scene, and does everyone agree before the event?
D2What do you say publicly while attribution is unknown?
- Avoiding both panic and complacency.
- Not prejudicing an investigation or naming suspects.
- Giving the public clear protective actions they can actually take.
Response playbook
Recognise
- Confirm agent via reference lab
- Preserve forensic samples
- Convene joint health–security cell
- Assess attribution openly
Protect
- Distribute stockpiled prophylaxis
- Define exposed cohort
- Secure potential scenes
- Issue clear protective guidance
Investigate & attribute
- Run parallel epi + criminal investigation
- Maintain chain-of-custody
- Coordinate international notification
- Align communications
After-action questions
- At what point does a health event become a security event, and who decides?
- Did the health and law-enforcement objectives ever conflict — and how was that resolved?
- Was the countermeasure distribution plan actually exercised before today?
National benchmark references
Real national strategies from the Global Pandemic Preparedness Benchmark that inform this scenario.