Biosurveillance
Vector-Borne Disease — Climate-Driven Range Expansion
A disease-carrying vector establishes in a previously non-endemic region.
Duration
120 min
Injects
5
Audience
One Health surveillance, vector control, public health, environmental & local government
Situation
A competent disease vector — an Aedes-type mosquito — has become established in a region historically too cool for it, driven by warming temperatures and changing land use. Entomological surveillance confirms breeding populations. The first locally-acquired cases of an arboviral disease not previously endemic here are reported at the end of the vector season. The system has one off-season to prepare before the next transmission window.
Exercise objectives
- Test One Health integration of entomological, human-health and environmental surveillance.
- Exercise the shift from an imported-case posture to preparing for sustained local transmission.
- Evaluate vector-control capacity, clinician awareness and diagnostic readiness for an unfamiliar disease.
- Rehearse risk communication to a population and clinical workforce with no prior experience of the disease.
Capability stress
How hard this scenario tests each of the 10 benchmark dimensions (1–5).
Foresight lens
Being able to cope with a threat that is precedent-free — a pathogen, dynamic or context we have NOT seen, where experience can actively mislead. Readiness is an adaptive capacity, not a plan for a known pattern.
TUNA profile
Assumptions this scenario windtunnelsfull register →
A7Human, animal and environmental surveillance will integrate in time (One Health).
Sensitivity: medium · TUNA: A
A8Diagnostics can identify a novel or fully drug-resistant pathogen.
Sensitivity: high · TUNA: N
A1Surveillance will detect the next threat early enough to act on it.
Sensitivity: high · TUNA: N · U
Scenario parameters
Illustrative planning figures for discussion — not operational data.
Driver
Climate-driven vector range expansion + land-use change
Vector status
Established, overwintering breeding populations confirmed
Transmission
First locally-acquired cases, end of season
Population immunity
None — newly exposed population
Clinician familiarity
Low — disease historically not seen here
Preparation window
One off-season before the next vector season
Roles at the table
One Health Surveillance Lead
Integrates entomological, human and environmental data.
Vector Control Lead
Owns mosquito surveillance and control operations.
Public Health Lead
Owns case detection, clinician alerts and response.
Diagnostics Lead
Ensures testing capability for an unfamiliar arbovirus.
Local Government / Environmental Lead
Owns breeding-site reduction and community engagement.
Communications Lead
Builds awareness in a naive population and clinical workforce.
Inject timeline
- Season end · Yr 0Vector established
Entomological surveillance confirms overwintering breeding populations.
- +2wFirst local case
A patient with no travel history tests positive for the arbovirus.
- +6wCluster
A small cluster of locally-acquired cases confirms local transmission.
- Off-seasonResource bid
Vector control and diagnostics request funding for next season, against competing priorities.
- Next seasonEarly detections
Vectors reappear; the preparation window has closed.
Decision points
D1How much do you invest in vector control and diagnostics for a disease that has only just arrived?
- Acting early on a small signal vs. waiting for a larger, costlier outbreak.
- Competing off-season priorities and finite public-health budgets.
- The cost of losing the single off-season preparation window.
D2When do you move from an "imported cases" framing to planning for an endemic disease?
- What evidence of establishment justifies the shift.
- The institutional inertia of treating it as someone else's disease.
- Building routine surveillance for a threat now expected to recur.
D3How do you build clinician awareness fast enough that first cases are not missed?
- Clinicians have never seen this presentation before.
- Alert fatigue vs. genuine need-to-know.
- Diagnostic pathways for an unfamiliar arbovirus.
Response playbook
Detect
- Integrate entomological, human and environmental surveillance
- Confirm vector establishment
- Characterise the arbovirus risk
- Set escalation thresholds
Prepare (off-season)
- Scale vector control
- Ready diagnostics
- Alert and train clinicians
- Reduce breeding sites with local government
Respond (in season)
- Early case detection
- Targeted vector control
- Public risk communication
- Protect vulnerable groups
Sustain
- Embed the disease in routine surveillance
- Plan for a now-endemic future
- Maintain One Health coordination
- Review after each season
After-action questions
- Did entomological and human-health surveillance actually connect, or run in parallel?
- Was the off-season preparation window used, or lost to competing priorities?
- How quickly would a first case be recognised by a clinician who has never seen this disease?
National benchmark references
Real national strategies from the Global Pandemic Preparedness Benchmark that inform this scenario.