Biosurveillance
Zoonotic Spillover — Avian Influenza at the Human–Animal Interface
A highly pathogenic avian influenza strain acquires efficient mammal-to-mammal transmission.
Duration
150 min
Injects
5
Audience
One Health coordination group, veterinary + public health agencies, environmental agency
Situation
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5 clade) has been circulating in wild birds and poultry for months. A dairy-cattle outbreak is confirmed, followed by sporadic human cases among farm workers. Genomic surveillance detects mutations associated with improved mammalian adaptation. No sustained human-to-human transmission — yet.
Exercise objectives
- Test One Health integration: do human, animal and environmental health share data and decisions in real time?
- Exercise the threshold for moving from animal-sector control to human pandemic preparedness posture.
- Evaluate genomic surveillance as an early-warning system at the human–animal interface.
- Rehearse worker protection and culling/compensation trade-offs.
Capability stress
How hard this scenario tests each of the 10 benchmark dimensions (1–5).
Foresight lens
Being able to cope with a threat that is precedent-free — a pathogen, dynamic or context we have NOT seen, where experience can actively mislead. Readiness is an adaptive capacity, not a plan for a known pattern.
TUNA profile
Assumptions this scenario windtunnelsfull register →
A1Surveillance will detect the next threat early enough to act on it.
Sensitivity: high · TUNA: N · U
A7Human, animal and environmental surveillance will integrate in time (One Health).
Sensitivity: medium · TUNA: A
Scenario parameters
Illustrative planning figures for discussion — not operational data.
Pathogen
HPAI H5 (clade 2.3.4.4b-like), mammalian-adaptation markers present
Animal reservoir
Wild birds, poultry, dairy cattle
Human cases
Sporadic, occupational, no sustained transmission
Case fatality (historical H5 in humans)
High, but uncertain for current strain
Surveillance signal
Wastewater + milk-tank + genomic markers
Vaccine status
Candidate vaccine viruses exist; scale-up untested
Roles at the table
One Health Coordinator
Chairs the joint human/animal/environment response and owns data-sharing.
Chief Veterinary Officer
Leads animal-sector control, culling and compensation policy.
Human Health Incident Lead
Owns worker protection, case management and pandemic escalation.
Genomics & Surveillance Lead
Tracks mammalian-adaptation markers and reassortment risk.
Environment/Wildlife Lead
Monitors wild reservoirs and environmental persistence.
Inject timeline
- Week 0Cattle outbreak confirmed
H5 confirmed in dairy herds across two regions; milk-tank surveillance positive.
- Week 1First human case
A farm worker develops conjunctivitis and mild respiratory illness; H5 confirmed.
- Week 2Adaptation markers
Sequencing shows PB2 mutations associated with mammalian replication efficiency.
- Week 3Cluster
Two workers on the same farm are infected — household or common-source exposure unclear.
- Week 4Cross-border spread
A neighbouring country reports infected cattle imports; trade and diplomatic pressure rises.
Decision points
D1What genomic or epidemiological signal moves you from "animal outbreak" to "pre-pandemic human posture"?
- Whether that threshold is defined and agreed across ministries before the exercise.
- The lead time you lose if the threshold is defined only after a human cluster.
- Data-sharing latency between veterinary and human health labs.
D2Do you begin scaling a candidate vaccine now, before human-to-human transmission is confirmed?
- The cost and opportunity cost of pre-emptive manufacturing.
- Whether prioritising farm/response workers is politically and ethically defensible.
- Manufacturing lead times vs. the speed of viral adaptation.
Response playbook
Interface monitoring
- Integrate veterinary + human + environmental surveillance
- Track adaptation markers
- Protect exposed workers
- Pre-agree escalation thresholds
Contain at source
- Animal movement controls and culling with compensation
- Occupational PPE and prophylaxis
- Enhanced human case-finding around outbreaks
Pre-pandemic readiness
- Ready candidate vaccine viruses
- Stress-test manufacturing scale-up
- Update pandemic plans for this pathogen
- Align cross-border trade and health measures
After-action questions
- Did veterinary and human-health data reach the same table on the same day?
- Who owns the decision to shift posture, and is that owner empowered across departments?
- What is the cost of being one week late to recognise mammalian adaptation?
National benchmark references
Real national strategies from the Global Pandemic Preparedness Benchmark that inform this scenario.